01
WAITING
V4
Collecting the current V4 settlement decision.
Independent source · unchanged
LIVE OFFPaper records and the retired Demo archive remain clearly labeled. When real-money Live is enabled, only Kalshi exchange-proven orders may appear as Live bids.
Decision Desk
Waiting for an active settlement mission…
BTC 15-MINUTE SETTLEMENT INTELLIGENCE
Decision Desk
Live chart and the remaining independent paper decisions.
BRTI REFERENCE—
KALSHI TARGET—
DISTANCE—
YES / NO ASK—
T−2 WINDOWWATCHING
BTC/USD
1M · COINBASE SUPPORTING CANDLESCOINBASE BTC—
CF BENCHMARKS BRTI—
LIVE
BTC/USD LIVE —KALSHI TARGET —
V4 WAITING
V4 + RSI/ADX WAITING
BASELINE T−2 WAIT
LAST CALL T−2 WAIT
INDICATORS
Waiting for coherent one-minute candles…
NO RECENT DIVERGENCE
3PT 5M AI · SCANNING
Grab and drag left/right or up/down · mouse wheel or pinch to zoom · double-click to return live
02
WAITING
V4 + RSI/ADX
Waiting for its own RSI and ADX/DMI decision.
Independent decision · no other bot decisions03
WAITING
Baseline
Waiting for the verified T−2 underdog window.
Independent source · unchanged04
WAITING
LAST CALL
Uses responsive RSI 5/9/14, stability, target distance, value edge and liquid pricing at T−2.
Does not read or stay locked to the earlier pick · 30–60¢ selected ask
NEW ISOLATED CHANNEL
LAST CALL
Recalculates a responsive RSI 5/9/14 + ADX direction from the newest closed candles inside T−2, so it may change an earlier YES to NO or an earlier NO to YES. The direction must remain stable for five seconds, account for time-adjusted target distance, clear a 6-point value edge, and have a fresh liquid 30–60¢ price.
CURRENT MARKETNO BID YETMarket —Checking requirements…
WHAT MUST HAPPEN BEFORE IT BIDSGREEN = READY · DARK = STILL WAITING
1FINAL T−2 LAST-CALL WINDOWWAITING — The last-call window has not opened.
2RESPONSIVE RSI 5/9/14 + ADX DIRECTIONWAITING — The newest closed-candle RSI slope and ADX/DMI read has not produced a direction.
3FIVE-SECOND DIRECTION STABILITYWAITING — The same direction must persist across multiple readings.
4TIME-ADJUSTED TARGET DISTANCEWAITING — Comparing target distance with expected movement.
5MINIMUM 6-POINT VALUE EDGEWAITING — Estimated probability must beat the ask.
6FRESH LIQUID 30–60¢ PRICEWAITING — Spread, visible size and exact ask must pass.
PAST PAPER BIDSThese are finished or pending bids from earlier markets. They are separate from the current-market status above.
TOTAL PAST BIDS0
WINS0
LOSSES0
WIN RATE—
PAPER NET$0.00
| Bid time | Previous market | Pick | Price | Why it picked that side | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No past paper bids yet. | |||||
This pageV4 live YES/NO display · no order authority
Automated authoritySettlement V4
Production LiveCHECKING…
Settlement & Kalshi
Kalshi Target Price—
Distance to Target—
Kalshi BRTI (Authoritative)—
Coinbase Spot (Supporting)—
Spread (Supporting)—
Momentum
1m / 5m / 15m—
Required / Actual Speed—
Supporting evidence only — open V4 & Intelligence for the full record.
Spike Hunter V4 live read · display only
Searching for an active market…
V4 decision ticker · display only
Execution-book ticker: —
—
⚪ COLLECTING
—
V4 LIVE PREDICTION: —
V4 BID STATUS: NO V4 BID YET
Waiting for V4’s live market snapshot…
Kalshi Target Price
—
Time Remaining
--:--
V4 current state (same engine as V4 & Intelligence)
COLLECTING
YES—
NO—
Waiting for V4 evidence…
V4 spike / evidence
—
Automated bid authority
SETTLEMENT V4 ONLY
Decision Desk can submit
NO
Settlement Reference—
Distance to Strike—
Kalshi YES / NO Ask—
V4 Value Read—
Follow-through—
V4 / Source Age—
FOK deadlineV4_COMMITMENT_PLUS_2_SECONDS
Exec timing (prep / net / ack)—
SETTLEMENT MATH · 45%—
KALSHI VALUE / EV · 25%—
V4 STRUCTURE · 10%—
ALL ADD-ONS · 15%—
SHORT MOMENTUM · 5%—
FINAL SCORE / GATE—
WHY THIS V4 DECISION — ALL INPUTS, VALUES, FRESHNESS AND BLOCKS
Waiting for the current V4 decision packet…
Live Account Safety
INACTIVEElapsed / Remaining—
Loss Capacity Left—
Total Exposure—
Open Orders—
Paper Position
Side / Entry—
Unrealized Net P/L—
LOCAL DECISION SUPPORT
Scenario, probability & execution timeline
WAITING FOR V4
DISPLAY ONLY · ZERO ORDER AUTHORITY
01
WAITING
Scenario Simulator
Stress-test the current V4 read in this browser. This never reruns V4, changes a gate, or contacts Kalshi.
V4 SIDE—
LIVE REFERENCE—
LIVE ASK—
−1.00%LIVE+1.00%
SCENARIO BTC—
SIDE PROBABILITY—
FEE-ADJUSTED EDGE—
LOCAL READWAITING
Local sensitivity only—not a prediction, V4 decision, or order recommendation.
02
NO LIVE QUOTE
Probability & EV
One fee-aware view of whether the current side is valuable at the price available now.
V4 SIDE PROBABILITY
—
COLLECTING
0%50%100%
CONTRACT ASK—
FEE / CONTRACT—
ALL-IN COST—
BREAK-EVEN—
EST. EDGE—
EV / CONTRACT—
Waiting for the verified V4 probability and same-side Kalshi ask.
03
DISPLAY SYNC —
Decision Cycle
- 1COLLECTINGWaiting for a market
- 2EVALUATINGProbability unavailable
- 3QUALIFIEDGate not reached
- 4LOCKEDNo V4 lock
- 5BID SUBMITTEDNo V4 bid
- 6SETTLEMENTPending
Recent activity
Recent Events
Collecting events…
Settlement Mission
The exact contract, its conditions, and the raw supporting market evidenceActive Contract
PendingTicker—
Market—
YES Condition—
NO Condition—
YES Bid / Ask—
NO Bid / Ask—
Kalshi Reference (BRTI) — Authoritative Settlement
STARTINGKalshi Live BTC (CF Benchmarks BRTI)—
Coinbase Spot (Supporting)—
Spread (Supporting)—
Distance to Target—
Trailing 60s Average—
Final-Minute Average—
Settlement Observations0 / 60
AI Price SourceWAITING
Read-only Kalshi reference feed starting…
Directional Target Engine
Expected Finish—
Kalshi Target—
Difference—
Distance to Target—
Expected Move—
Z-Distance—
Required Speed—
Actual 10s Speed—
Motion—
Key Technicals
EMA 20 / 50—
EMA 100 / 200—
VWAP—
RSI 14—
1m Volume—
20m Avg Volume—
Volume Ratio—
Candle History—
Market Overview
Coinbase Spot Price (Supporting)—
1m / 5m / 15m—
30m / 60m—
Move Since Open—
5m Volatility—
Whale Market Pressure
FEED —YES —
NO —
NEUTRAL
AI Council
Every specialist answers one question: does this evidence raise or lower the probability THIS settlement condition becomes TRUE?Specialist Matrix
| Specialist | Opinion | Probability | Confidence | Status | Model / Version | Last Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collecting specialist opinions… | ||||||
Trust score, correlation-cluster weight, and promotion stage are Boss System (Evidence Manager) concepts — see the Boss System page for shadow-comparison agreement rates once those are computed per specialist.
Chronos (BTC forecast → settlement evidence)
STARTINGYES Probability—
Confidence—
Forecast Finish (Median)—
Forecast vs Target—
Forecast Range (10%–90%)
— — —
Exact Kalshi Target—
Current BTC Used—
Distance to Target—
Specialists Agreeing—
Amazon Chronos-2 · Waiting for first forecast · Consensus: —
Settlement AI
WAITINGYES Probability—
Confidence—
Model Edge (YES)—
Market-Implied YES—
WindowNOT ACTIVE
Observations0 / 60
Proxy Average—
Order Flow AI
COLLECTINGMIXED
Waiting for Binance order-flow data…
Strength: — · Confidence: —
Whale AI
YES Whale Value—
NO Whale Value—
Whale Imbalance—
Single Fills / Sweeps—
Largest YES—
Largest NO—
Historical AI
Similarity Score—
Similarity to 0 completed markets
Historical YES Rate—
Result Bias—
Pretrained Fast AI
STARTINGYES Probability—
Confidence—
ModelQwen
Target Verified—
Waiting for local Ollama model…
Shadow Mode · —
Custom Kalshi Meta-Model
COLLECTINGProbability—
Prediction: COLLECTING
Confidence—
Training Examples0
AI Council Memory
SHADOW MODEExact Kalshi Target—
Current BTC—
Distance—
Similar Settled Markets0
Collecting settled market memory…
Council Synchronization & Freshness
SNAPSHOT —Every member is measured against one immutable decision snapshot. A member influences the CRO only while LIVE; STALE / DEGRADED / DISCONNECTED members carry ZERO influence — the CRO never uses several-minute-old evidence.
| Member | Status | Influence | Opinion | Prob | Conf | BTC used | Sec used | Src age | Latency | Output age | Snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collecting synchronization telemetry… | |||||||||||
—
Market Recorder
SHADOW ONLY / NO TRADING AUTHORITY — records to E:\Klashi History; never affects bidding, Live stays OFFRecorder Status
—State—
Storage—
Active Ticker—
Latest BRTI—
BRTI Age (s)—
Queue—
Dropped Rows—
Rows Written—
Rows This Market—
Disk Free (GB)—
Last Write (ET)—
Last Errornone
—
Strategy Comparison
PAPER / SHADOW ONLYNo comparison run yet — collecting forward data.
| Profile | Traded Mkts | Net P/L (5k) | Wins | Losses | Fees | Entries |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awaiting settled markets… | ||||||
Reliable-Edge Mkts0
CURRENT Skipped Edge0
…& LessRestr Profited0
News Intelligence
OBSERVATION ONLY / NO TRADING AUTHORITYOverview
OBSERVATION ONLYSources Connected—
Sources Failed / Disabled—
Current Severity—
Runner—
Next Scheduled Eventnone scheduled
Countdown—
No verified event yet.
Connector Health
| Source | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Waiting for runner poll… | ||
Capital & Execution
Owner V4 Live control and customer accounts
LIVE
Owner V4 Real-Money Control
CHECKINGLive Status—
Production Credentials—
Account Reconciliation—
Account Snapshot Watchdog—
Owner Snapshot Generation—
Member Snapshot Ages—
Emergency Stop—
Authorized Owner Capital—
Live Account Equity—
Predictions cash (Kalshi total)—
V4 max bid (fee-inclusive)—
KXBTC15M route (internal check)—
Open Live Orders—
Open Live Positions—
Checking production readiness…
Turning Live ON requires typing YES. The backend still requires verified production credentials, a reconciled account, a healthy durable order ledger and no active emergency stop. Turning Live OFF immediately blocks new production orders and cancels any open Live-owned orders; it does not close an already-filled position.
Predictions cash is the full Kalshi Predictions balance (all shards). The V4 bid cap is independently $1.00 fee-inclusive per account and is not the account balance. The KXBTC15M route figure is an internal order-readiness check only — it is not displayed as total cash.
Loading active Live risk limits…
The Demo runtime is retired and its historical records are audit-only. Live always starts OFF after a dashboard restart.
Customer Accounts
V4-linked customer accounts onlyV4 Customer Accounts — isolated setup, verification and risk limits
—Only customer accounts added on the Members page appear here. Every customer remains isolated, starts Live OFF and can only follow V4 after separate verification and approval. The owner account and owner Paper, Demo and Live ledgers are not displayed on this page.
V4 MEMBER FOLLOWING: OFF
member execution workers 4 · EV policy DIAGNOSTIC_ONLY
Preview places zero orders. Real following requires both an individually armed, verified customer and a separate explicit confirmation of this global switch. The global switch resets OFF after restart; new customers start OFF. A saved individual setting cannot place orders while the global switch is OFF. Customers cannot alter V4.
Activation readiness — —
Customer Live control
V4 Members — Settlement V4 only · secure credentials · isolated customer accounts
—Create and manage customer accounts for Settlement V4 only. Customer accounts follow V4 and never influence its direction, timing or price. Private keys are encrypted at rest with Windows DPAPI and are write-only — never displayed again after saving. New members default to Live Bidding OFF. V4 member-order following remains locked OFF until separately verified and approved. The protected owner account is not controlled from this customer setup page.
New customer / member
Members
—Loading members…
Administrative audit trail
timestamps in ET · no secret values recorded—
CRO vs JP — Full Report · head-to-head over every Guaranteed Final Call · read-only / analysis only · ZERO authority
—Same resolver as the Guaranteed Final Calls panel. Fresh Era 2 is the default. Genuine (natural trade-qualified) and required T-60 calls are kept separate for analysis. Every brain uses the same maximum $20 bid total, including its modeled entry fee. Archived history is available for audit, but is not presented as current-system evidence. Nothing here changes CRO, JP, Market Vision, Demo, Live, routing, or weighting.
Era:
Loading…
ALL AI · AFTER T-2 THROUGH MARKET CLOSE · EASTERN TIME
AFTER T-2 · 1¢–60¢
T2
After 2:00 remaining, each T2 channel gets one paper bid when its selected-side ask is 1¢–60¢. Baseline always shows the exact Baseline bid from V4 & Intelligence—the same side, price, time, and result. A T2 V4 bid is also mirrored in V4 & Intelligence only when V4 did not already record a verified bid before T-2; every original bid and ledger stays unchanged.
TODAY
T2 SETTLEMENT — VERIFIED BID PERFORMANCE
LOADING T2 BIDS| Date | Bid Time (ET) | Market | Time Left | V4 | V4 6MIN | RSI + ADX | V4 + RSI/ADX | Baseline | LAST CALL | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading T2 channel decisions. | ||||||||||
Correct vs Incorrect by Channel
SELECTED PERIOD · SETTLED ONLYLoading T-2 settled totals.
BASELINE · VERIFIED T−2 BIDS · $20 PAPER PERFORMANCE
Baseline
The exact Baseline bids shown in V4 & Intelligence are recorded here with their frozen side, price, result, and fee-inclusive paper profit for a fixed $20 budget.
CONNECTING0 BIDS
Today’s Baseline Performance
TODAY ETBIDS0
WINS0
LOSSES0
PENDING0
WIN RATE—
$20 PAPER PROFIT$0.00
Profit by Day
LAST 30 DAYS · EASTERN TIME| Date | Bids | Settled | Wins | Losses | Pending | Win Rate | $20 Paper Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading daily Baseline profit. | |||||||
Recorded Baseline Bids
LIVE RECORD| Bid Time (ET) | Market | Side | Recorded Ask | Time Left | $20 Debit | Official Winner | Result | Paper Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting for recorded Baseline bids. | ||||||||
Paper results use the exact recorded Baseline ask and include the modeled Kalshi entry fee. This display does not place orders or change the Baseline bidding rules.
KALSHI · KXBTCD · CF BENCHMARKS BRTI
BTC One-Hour Paper Deck
One independent paper bid for every tradable hourly event. The official BRTI and Kalshi's executable Yes/No asks are used; this page has no real-money order path.
CONNECTINGPAPER AUTO · LIVE UNAVAILABLE
Finding the current KXBTCD hourly market…
CURRENT HOURLY EVENT—
Bitcoin above the selected strike at the top of the hour?
SELECTED STRIKE—
OFFICIAL BRTI 60S—
TIME LEFT—
Checking official feed…—
KALSHI EXECUTABLE BOOK—
YES—ask · — availablebid —
NO—ask · — availablebid —
HOURLY PAPER STRATEGYWAITING
Waiting for evidence
The service is warming up.
One paper bid per hourly event · entry during final 10 minutesChoose an Hourly Strike
CHANCE · YES / NO ASKChance is the midpoint of Kalshi's current YES bid and ask. The buttons select that exact contract in the paper ticket below.
Loading the hourly strike choices…
Manual Hourly Paper Ticket
PAPER ONLYNearest active strikeSimulated fill at verified ask
This service cannot submit, cancel, or modify a real Kalshi order. Automatic bidding is also paper-only.
—
Automatic Hourly Rules
ENABLEDBIDS / EVENT1
ENTRY WINDOWT−10:00 to T−0:30
SIZE1 contract
SETTLEMENTKalshi result
OFFICIAL INDEXBRTI
LIVE AUTHORITYNONE
Safety boundary
- Stale official BRTI blocks the paper bid.
- A missing executable Kalshi ask blocks the paper bid.
- BTC 15-minute, V4, V4 6MIN, and Gold remain unchanged.
BTC 1HR Paper Bid History
30-DAY VIEWRECORDS0
WINS0
LOSSES0
WIN RATE—
REALIZED P/L$0.00
| Time | Event | Strike | Side | Fill | Official BRTI | Model | Status | Result | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No hourly paper bids recorded yet. | |||||||||
Verified Hourly Contract Rules
KXBTCDSETTLEMENT SOURCECF Benchmarks BRTINever Coinbase or a substitute price.
OBSERVATIONFinal 60-second averageThe simple average immediately before the hour.
MARKET TYPEAbove a strikeYES only when the official average is strictly above it.
FEESQuadraticIncluded in every paper result.
Loading the exact active-contract rule from Kalshi…
Supporting BTC prices never replace the official BRTI settlement source.
KALSHI BTC 15M · COMBINED RESEARCH
V4 + RSI/ADX Paper Bid Channel
An active paper bidder combining V4's fresh direction with closed-candle RSI 7/14/21 and Wilder ADX/DMI voting.
● PAPER ENGINE
NO LIVE ORDER AUTHORITY
Waiting for the first synchronized V4 and RSI/ADX evaluation…
CURRENT MARKET—
WATCHING
V4 CURRENT CALL—
COMBINED TECHNICAL SIDE—
TIME LEFT—
Waiting for synchronized evidence.One paper bid maximum per 15-minute market
RSI + ADX CHANNEL BIDWAITING
RECORDED BID SIDENO BIDShown after this channel's bid rule passespaper only
RECORDED BID ASK—No bid recordedCandidate quote is not a bid
V4 KNOWLEDGEACTIVE MODEL
SETTLEMENT P—
DECISION SCORE—
EV AT ASK—
Waiting for V4.Uses V4 settlement, value, structure, market intelligence, timing and price-proof gates
RSI + ADX Paper Bid History
0 BIDSMODELED PAPER — NOT AN EXCHANGE FILL · V4 + ONE TECHNICAL VOTE REQUIRED · EXACT KALSHI ASK REQUIRED
| Time (ET) | Market | Side | Ask | V4 p | V4 score | RSI 7/14/21 | ADX | Result | Paper P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No RSI + ADX paper bids yet. This channel is watching for its bid rule. | |||||||||
RSI 7/14/21 + ADX/DMI Knowledge
WAITINGRSI 7—
RSI 14—
RSI 21—
RSI CONSENSUS—
ADX 14—
+DI—
−DI—
TREND—
CHANNEL BID GATES
Waiting for healthy V4 data, support from either the RSI majority or ADX/DMI, and an exact fresh Kalshi ask.
Today (ET)
FEE-INCLUSIVE PAPERLast 30 Days
COMBINED CHANNEL ONLYRSI + ADX Bid Rule
ACTIVE PAPER V3This channel records its own paper bid when V4's fresh direction is supported by either the 2-of-3 RSI majority or ADX/DMI, using the exact fresh Kalshi ask.
This channel cannot submit, cancel, resize, or influence a V4 or Live order. Its own ledger and settlement results stay separate.
V4 + RSI/ADX · NIGHT WINDOW · EASTERN TIME
8 PM–3 AM ET
V4 + RSI/ADX Night Bids
Only recorded bids from 8:00 PM through 2:59:59 AM ET are shown. After-midnight bids belong to the evening when that night session began.
CURRENT NIGHT
| Night | Bid Time (ET) | Market | Side | Ask | RSI 7 / 14 / 21 | ADX / DMI | Result | Paper P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading V4 + RSI/ADX night bids… | ||||||||
Correct vs Incorrect by Channel
SELECTED NIGHTS · SETTLED ONLYLoading night-channel totals.
KALSHI BTC 15M · FAIR-VALUE SCALPING RESEARCH
Scalping Paper Channel
Target-distance, volatility, multi-window momentum, crossing, final-60 settlement, and executable Kalshi order-book research.
● PAPER ENGINENO LIVE ORDER AUTHORITY
Collecting the first synchronized BRTI and Kalshi book samples…
CURRENT MARKET—
LOOKING FOR ENTRY
BRTI—
TARGET—
TIME LEFT—
Waiting for target-distance evidence.Paper entries and exits use exact Kalshi executable prices
FAIR VALUECOLLECTING
FAIR YES—ask —research estimate
FAIR NO—ask —research estimate
PAPER POSITIONFLAT
SIDE / ENTRY—
LIVE BID—
DYNAMIC EXIT—
No paper position is owned.BUY → OWN → SELL → FLAT → repeat
Target-Distance Engine
WAITINGDOLLAR DISTANCE—
NORMALIZED DISTANCE—
EXPECTED SHORT MOVE—
RELATION / MOTION—
VELOCITY—
ACCELERATION—
DECELERATING—
SAMPLE HISTORY—
Momentum Windows
BRTI MOVEMENTCollecting 1s–5m movement windows.
Target Crossings
0 TOTALLAST 30S0
LAST 1M0
LAST 3M0
LAST DIRECTION—
SECONDS SINCE—
MAX EXCURSION—
FAILED BREAKOUT—
RECROSS COUNT0
Final-60 Settlement Window
INACTIVEOBSERVATIONS0 / 60
RUNNING AVERAGE—
OBSERVED SUM—
REMAINING60
REQUIRED REMAINING AVG FOR YES—
TARGET—
Uses observed official BRTI stream samples; supporting exchange prices never replace BRTI.
Current Entry Economics & Gates
WATCHINGCANDIDATE SIDE—
EXECUTABLE ASK—
MODEL EDGE—
SPREAD—
BREAK-EVEN—
EXPECTED NET EDGE—
PROPOSED EXIT—
QUOTE AGE—
PAPER ENTRY GATES
Collecting enough short-term history.
Today (ET)
SCALP CYCLESLast 30 Days
COMPLETED + OPENScalping Paper Cycle History
0 CYCLESMODELED PAPER — NOT AN EXCHANGE FILL · MULTIPLE BUY/SELL CYCLES ALLOWED · EXACT KALSHI ASK/BID ONLY
| Entry (ET) | Market / Cycle | Side | Buy Ask | Fair P | Edge | Exit Bid | State | Result | Paper P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No paper scalp cycles recorded yet. | |||||||||
Scalping Safety & Research Rules
PAPER V1Configurable edge, spread, freshness, timing, position-size, re-entry, and dynamic-exit gates. One owned paper position at a time.
Opening this page never places an order. This channel has no imports or routes capable of submitting, canceling, or modifying a real Kalshi order.
SPIKE-HUNTING MODE DISABLED — the supplied Step 11 text was corrupted; exact rules are required before activation.
KALSHI BTC 15M · A+ OPPORTUNITY HUNTER
Selective Paper Channel
Independent dual-model research: settlement strength, strike-recross risk, executable Kalshi value, and a separate veto engine.
● PAPER ENGINENO LIVE ORDER AUTHORITY
Connecting to Selective. Zero bids is valid; no result is guaranteed.
Current KXBTC15M Market
WAITINGAUTOMATIC STRIKE—
OFFICIAL BRTI—
TIME REMAINING—
CANDIDATENONE
Waiting for a coherent official BRTI and Kalshi contract snapshot.
Final Decision
WATCHSTATEABSTAIN
A+ SCORE—
DATA QUALITY—
VETO—
UNCALIBRATED — FORWARD PAPER VALIDATION REQUIRED
Distance, Volatility & Momentum
COLLECTINGRAW DISTANCE—
EXPECTED REMAINING MOVE—
SAFETY MULTIPLE—
TIME ON CURRENT SIDE—
ACCELERATION—
DETERIORATING—
PINE SUPPORT SIGNAL—
EXTERNAL EXCHANGES—
Strike Behavior
0 TOTALCROSSES 30S / 1M0 / 0
CROSSES 3M / 5M0 / 0
LAST CROSS—
STRIKE DEFENSENONE
MAX EXCURSION—
PULLBACK—
PULLBACK RATIO—
RECROSS COUNT0
Separate Research Models
NOT YET CALIBRATEDSETTLEMENT ESTIMATE—
STRIKE REVISIT—
STRIKE RECROSS—
FULL REVERSAL—
BOUNCE RISK—
MODEL CONFIDENCE—
STRUCTURE—
SAMPLE SPAN—
Kalshi Executable Market
KALSHI ONLYYES BID / ASK—
NO BID / ASK—
SELECTED ASK / DEPTH—
SPREAD—
FULL BOOK LEVELS—
QUOTE AGE—
PARTIAL FILL—
MODELED DEBIT—
Economics
FEES + SLIPPAGE + UNCERTAINTYFAIR SIDE ESTIMATE—
BREAK-EVEN—
RAW EDGE—
ADJUSTED EDGE—
No price alone creates a bid.
Why It Bid or Abstained
EVERY GATE EXPLAINEDWaiting for the first evaluation.
Today (ET)
MAX 6 · NO MINIMUMLast 30 Days
SELECTIVE ONLYSelective Paper Bid History
0 BIDSMODELED PAPER — ACTUAL KALSHI ASK · VISIBLE DEPTH CAP · FEE-INCLUSIVE · CLICK A BID FOR SAVED EVIDENCE
| Time (ET) | Market | Side | Ask | Settlement | Recross | Grade | Edge | Result | Paper P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Selective paper bids yet. Abstaining is valid. | |||||||||
Transparent Pine Script Used as Supporting Research
EXACT SAVED SOURCEThis is the transparent Pine v6 reconstruction previously supplied. Its exchange prices are support only. Selective overrides the script’s manual target with Kalshi’s automatic strike and uses official BRTI as settlement truth.
Loading source…
View complete Pine v6 source
Loading…
Non-Negotiable Safety
PAPER ONLYSelective shares raw market evidence with V4 but never receives V4’s decision, bid, position, or order state. Its ledger and model state are separate.
Opening this page never places an order. This module has no Live order authority. No win is guaranteed, and zero A+ opportunities means zero bids.
REAL-TIME SETTLEMENT INTELLIGENCE
V4 Command Deck
Price structure, Kalshi execution proof, and market intelligence in one focused operational view.
⚡ SETTLEMENT V4 — LIVE DATA · sole automated authority · Demo runtime retired · production status shown above
—
Coinbase candles · BRTI settlement reference · Kalshi strike · Binance futures mid
—
—
Coinbase 1-minute candles supply technical structure; the fresh Kalshi CF BRTI reference supplies settlement distance/probability. Volume is shown in the lower chart pane. EMA 5/13 + VWAP stay visible; slower EMA 20/50 are optional to reduce noise. Binance/OKX/Bybit intelligence is confirmation/conflict evidence only until independently graded.
⚙ V4 EXECUTION LIFECYCLE
· Spike Hunter V4 is the ONE trade authority · a SIGNAL is NOT a position — only FILLED means V4 owns it
DRY-RUN
no active V4 leg yet
KALSHI FAST-STREAM PROOFtime-aligned comparison against V4’s authoritative decision-time REST price
INVESTIGATING
EXACT MATCH—
WITHIN 1¢—
LARGEST DIFFERENCE—
STREAM FRESHNESS—
SEQUENCE GAPS—
COMPARISONS—
OBSERVATION TIME—
LATEST KALSHI ASK—
EXECUTION MIX—
Connecting to the read-only evidence stream…
DECISION AUTHORITY: fingerprinted REST still determines V4’s recorded decision. EXECUTION ONLY: after V4 commits a Live bid, the latest fresh sequenced Kalshi stream ask reprices and sizes that same-side full-or-none order immediately; it cannot create, veto, or change a V4 decision.
🔬 MARKET INTELLIGENCE · Binance·OKX·Bybit order-flow · whales · liquidations · liquidity · Bookmap-style heatmap · CONTROLLED V4 QUALIFICATION INPUT
—connecting to feeds…
📘 V4 SIGNAL GUIDE — what the live evidence means, its limits, and how learning is controlled open to load
The versioned guide loads only when opened so it cannot slow the V4 feed.
⚡ V4 MICROSTRUCTURE CHANNEL — 15M Profile · Liquidity Change · Multibook · DOM Pro · Sweeps · Large Trades
Binance/OKX/Bybit market evidence affects V4 qualification through four grouped axes · it is never the Kalshi order book. Public feeds do not reveal untriggered stops or hidden size; inferred items are labelled and never presented as confirmed.
Waiting for Binance Futures DOM…
Waiting for Binance, OKX and Bybit books…
Waiting for the aggressive trade tape…
Waiting for realized liquidation and displayed-depth evidence…
Building this market’s executed-volume profile and 10s/60s liquidity-change history…
Binance Futures Resting-Liquidity Heatmap
Where displayed limit orders are sitting over time — this is not a liquidation-level forecast.
NOWWarming…
STRONGEST SUPPORT—
STRONGEST RESISTANCE—
DISPLAYED DEPTH—
warming…Move across the chart to inspect a moment.
Resting bids / possible supportResting asks / possible resistanceBinance Futures mid-priceRealized long liquidation · time-alignedRealized short liquidation · time-aligned
Source: Binance Futures deep order-book snapshots, refreshed off the V4 fast path. The colors show displayed BTC quantity using a logarithmic scale so one very large wall does not hide every smaller wall. Orders can be moved or canceled and therefore are evidence, not a promise of support/resistance. Dots are realized liquidation events from OKX/Bybit, not estimated liquidation clusters. A dot is placed on the time-aligned Binance Futures mid because the feeds report a bankruptcy/reference price—not a proven execution price; the reported bankruptcy price remains preserved in the event data. Binance price is not the Kalshi price; executable Kalshi bids/asks remain recorded separately. Heatmap/DOM information contributes only inside the correlated BOOK group; this panel itself cannot place a trade.
📒 V4 + RSI/ADX — $20 BID PERFORMANCE · exact recorded side and ask · fee included · paper revenue shown for a fixed $20 budget per bid
—Today's Eastern Time bids · daily history refresh at 12:00 AM ET.
| Market | V4 | V4 6MIN | RSI + ADX | V4 + RSI/ADX | Baseline | LAST CALL | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading same-market decisions. | |||||||
PAGE 1 OF 1
Correct vs Incorrect by Channel
SELECTED PERIODLoading settled prediction totals.
—
AUTO-UPDATING V4 + RSI/ADX BIDSWatching the combined channel for its next recorded bid.
TODAY — V4 + RSI/ADX BIDS
0 bidsWaiting for the first V4 + RSI/ADX bid…
$20 display rule: every recorded V4 + RSI/ADX bid is recalculated as a separate $20 paper budget at that bid's frozen Kalshi ask, with the modeled entry fee included. This display does not change the original signal, price, stored bid, or live-trading authority.
SAME V4 INTELLIGENCE · ONE CONTROLLED TIMING CHANGE
V4 & Intelligence 6MIN
The normal V4 side, probability, score, intelligence gates, and exact Kalshi price proof—observed again at six minutes or later.
PAPER RESEARCH · AUTHORITY NONEThis comparison never sends, changes, cancels, or sizes a Live order. Existing V4 remains the sole automated authority.
Current 6MIN decision lane
INITIALIZINGWAITING FOR MARKET—
T−15 OPENT−10 V4T−6 6MIN GATESETTLE
V4 SIDE—
V4 PROBABILITY—
DECISION SCORE—
EXACT ASK—
VISIBLE DEPTH—
PRICE PROOF—
The observer is starting. It will wait for the exact same V4 core to qualify at or inside T−6:00.
Experiment controls
ISOLATEDV4 model & directionSAME
Intelligence & safety gatesSAME
Kalshi exact-price proofSAME
Earliest paper entryT−6:00
Order authorityNONE
One prospective $1 fee-inclusive paper entry at the first exact, core-qualified V4 snapshot at or after six minutes. One entry maximum per market; no historical backfill.
6MIN paper history by date
EASTERN TIMECurrent Eastern Time week: Sunday through Saturday.
Paired win-rate comparison · selected dates
0 SETTLED PAIRSORIGINAL V4 FIRST QUALIFIED SIDE—0W · 0L
6MIN ADVANTAGE—percentage points
V4 6MIN SIDE—0W · 0L
Only the same settled markets are compared. A small sample is directional—not proof. The result becomes more trustworthy as settled pairs accumulate.
6MIN performance
$1 FEE-INCLUSIVE PAPERSELECTED WEEK
TODAY
LAST 30 DAYS
Recorded 6MIN paper entries · selected dates
0 ROWSShowing paper entries for the selected dates.
| Time (ET) | Market | Side | V4 p | Score | Entry T− | Exact ask | Modeled debit | Result | Net P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The prospective 6MIN experiment starts now. Waiting for its first qualifying market. | |||||||||
What this answers: whether waiting until six minutes improves directional win rate on markets where the same V4 core still qualifies. It does not change normal V4, current Live settings, bid size, Telegram alerts, or any execution path.
CUSTOMER SETTINGS
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Dreys Predictions
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- V4 & Intelligence dashboard
- V4 6-minute analysis
- RSI + ADX analysis
- Automatic software updates
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DREYS PREDICTIONS SUPPORT
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Send an issue directly to Dreys Predictions and follow the owner’s replies here.
PRIVATE SUPPORT
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CUSTOMER → OWNERYour conversations
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ABOUT DREYS PREDICTIONS
Your prediction command deck
A focused, read-only view of six independent decision channels, market context, recorded prices, and verified outcomes.
READ-ONLY SOFTWARE
MARKETV4RSI + ADXLAST CALLRESULT
KXBTC15M-2145YES 45¢YES 42¢NO 38¢YES WON
KXBTC15M-2200NO BIDNO 51¢NO 47¢NO WON
KXBTC15M-2215NO 44¢NO 39¢WAITINGCURRENT
V4
83.3%RSI + ADX
71.2%LAST CALL
63.6%
83.3%RSI + ADX
71.2%LAST CALL
63.6%
V4 & Intelligence
The primary market-direction view with chart structure, probability, target distance, momentum, and the exact recorded bid.
V4 6MIN
A separate V4 reading near the six-minute mark so its timing and results can be compared without rewriting the original V4 call.
RSI + ADX
An independent channel combining responsive RSI direction with ADX/DMI trend strength and its own recorded decision.
Night Bots
A filtered 8 PM–3 AM ET view with a calendar, each AI’s night performance, and clickable bid histories.
T−2 Page
After T−2, each channel can record one new 1¢–60¢ paper bid through market close. A qualifying T2 V4 bid is mirrored into V4 & Intelligence only when no verified V4 bid already existed before T−2.
Telegram
Active customers can join the private alert channel. Access follows subscription status automatically.
How to read the software
SIMPLE WORKFLOW- Confirm the market.Check the ticker, target, Bitcoin reference, and time remaining.
- Read channels separately.Each AI may say YES, NO, WAITING, or NO BID; they do not need to agree.
- Check the recorded price.The price beside a channel is the ask observed when that paper decision was recorded.
- Review the result.Verified outcomes update the calendar and correct-versus-incorrect cards.
IMPORTANT: Dreys Predictions is read-only decision-support software. It does not control a customer’s account, funds, or transactions. Customers make every decision independently.
Dreys Predictions Customers
Software registration, subscriptions and accessTOTAL CUSTOMERS0
ACTIVE / PAID0
PENDING PAYMENT0
PAST DUE0
OWNER SUSPENDED0
FREE ACCESS0
STAFF ACCOUNTS0
EXTENSION REQUESTS0
Automatic activation
CHECKINGChecking Stripe subscription configuration…
STAFF ROLES: Only the owner can create, change, or remove an Executive. Executives cannot change themselves or another Executive and may assign Super Admin or any lower rank. Super Admins cannot change themselves, another Super Admin, or an Executive. Admin can grant each customer one 1–3 day extension; later requests require senior approval. Moderator can grant one 24-hour access period, then request 3 days from an Admin. Every staff role can answer support.
Registered customer installations
0 CUSTOMERS| Customer account | Dashboard / TradingView | Payment | Access | Account details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No customer installations have registered yet. | ||||
CUSTOMER ACCOUNT
Account details
Staff extension requests
OWNER APPROVALNo additional-extension requests.
Admin portal · customer access activity
LATEST 100| Time | Username / Rank | Event | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| No customer events yet. | |||
Customer Support
Read and answer Dreys Predictions customer messagesTOTAL REQUESTS0
NEEDS YOUR REPLY0
ANSWERED0
CLOSED0
No customer support requests yet.
EXECUTIVE ONLY
CHECKING
Safe Repair Center
Recheck display data, explain protected records, and prepare a sanitized request for Codex without changing bids or financial history.
SAFETY LIMIT: This center cannot place orders or create, backfill, delete, or alter bids, quote evidence, prices, P/L, or settlements. Historical proof that failed the timing rule stays protected as NO BID.
ACTIONABLE ISSUES—
PROTECTED NO BIDS—
EXPECTED T2 MIRRORS—
VERIFIED V4 BIDS—
Running the first safe check…
Sanitized Codex request
NO SECRETS · NO LOCAL PATHSA direct Codex connection is not configured. Build and copy the request, then paste it into Codex for review.
DREYS PREDICTIONS STAFF
STAFF
Staff Console
Your permissions are loading.
TOTAL REQUESTS0
NEEDS REPLY0
ANSWERED0
CLOSED0
Customer extensions
ADMIN LIMITAdmins may grant one 1–3 day extension per customer. A later attempt is submitted to a Super Admin.
RANK PROTECTION: Executive accounts are owner-controlled and cannot change themselves or another Executive. Executives may assign and manage Super Admin or any lower rank. Super Admins may manage only lower-ranked Admin, Moderator, and Customer accounts.
| Customer | Access | Free access | Role extension use | Action | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading customers… | |||||
Extension approval requests
APPROVALNo pending requests.
Customer questions
ANSWER SUPPORTNo customer support requests yet.
Brain vs Filter — is CRO over-filtering good predictions?
READ-ONLY
Separates each system's raw directional BRAIN from its trade FILTER, on the SAME frozen
snapshots. Read-only measurement — no gate is changed. True SAFETY controls
(bankroll, exposure, stale-feed, duplicate, opposing-position, e-stop, data availability) are
excluded from the questioned set; only STRATEGY/qualification gates (10-min timing,
probability threshold, edge threshold, repeat/scale-in) are measured. Hypothetical P/L is on an
equal-$ basis, not the real Demo scoreboard. Accumulates automatically with every settled market.
CRO settled markets observed— · open —
Four scoreboards — raw brain vs filtered strategy
Collecting…
CRO blocked-opportunity — did the filter block winners or losers?
—Collecting — no strategy-blocked CRO predictions settled yet.
By gate — which gates SAVE money and which COST money
the answer—
Blocked predictions (per market)
—
V4 Performance — Fresh Era
STARTING AT ZERO
Loading the fresh V4 cutoff…
Only current systems appear here: V4 Paper and Kalshi exchange-proven V4 Live. Retired systems, research comparisons, archived eras and old Live experiments are excluded. Their immutable records remain preserved outside this page for audit.
FRESH DATA ONLY
Current Eastern Time week: Sunday through Saturday.
V4 Paper
0 BIDSPrice-proven V4 paper bids only. Full-budget counterfactual at each frozen Kalshi selected-side ask; never presented as a real exchange fill.
Current Real-Money Live
CHECKINGOnly Kalshi exchange-acknowledged orders with a non-empty exchange order ID. Zero-fill FOK attempts remain visible; actual fills, fees and settled P/L are never replaced by paper assumptions.
Fresh V4 Bid Record
0 ROWSPaper and Live are deliberately separate rows and separate totals. A V4 Paper bid is evidence of the model's recorded action; only a Live row with a Kalshi exchange order ID proves a real-money order reached Kalshi.
| Source | Time (ET) | Market | Side | Kalshi price | Budget / filled | Contracts | Status | Result | Fees | Net P/L | Proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresh performance starts at 0. Waiting for the first new V4 record. | |||||||||||
ANALYTICS & MARKET DATA
▣ V2 Research Desk
Chart-aware 15-minute BTC decision cockpit · Exact Kalshi price proof · Modeled paper execution
● ENGINE ONLINE
PAPER ONLY
AUTHORITY NONE
V2 — PAPER RESEARCH — NO ORDER AUTHORITYNever places a Kalshi order, never enables Live, and never changes V4. Every bid is modeled paper—not an exchange fill.
Waiting for the isolated V2 worker.—
1. MARKET DATAAWAITING FEEDS
2. CHART MODELAWAITING MODEL
3. DIRECTIONNO SIDE
4. KALSHI PROOFAWAITING PROOF
5. FILTERSCHECKING
6. PAPER RECORDNO BID
KALSHI TARGET / STRIKE—Fixed for active contract
AUTHORITATIVE BRTI—CF Benchmarks reference
DISTANCE TO TARGET—Recalculated per tick
ACTIVE CONTRACTUNAVAILABLEExpires in —
RSI 7/14/21 Consensus & ADX/DMI
WAITINGRSI 7 · FAST—
RSI 14 · STANDARD—
RSI 21 · SLOW—
RSI CONSENSUS—
ADX 14 · STRENGTH—
+DI · UP DIRECTION—
−DI · DOWN DIRECTION—
RESEARCH SIDE—
FORWARD PAPER SIGNAL · COMPLETED 1-MINUTE CANDLES · NO ORDER AUTHORITY
Waiting for completed one-minute OHLC candles.
RSI Divergence Radar
WAITINGDIVERGENCE—
RESEARCH SIDE—
PRICE PIVOTS—
RSI PIVOTS—
CLOSED-CANDLE, NON-REPAINTING CHECK
Waiting for enough completed 1-minute candles.
Selective A+ Opportunity Hunter
PAPER ONLYDECISION MODELINDEPENDENT
SETTLEMENT MODELSEPARATE
RECROSS MODELSEPARATE
VETO ENGINEREQUIRED
DAILY TARGET0–6 A+ SETUPS
FORCED QUOTANONE
LIVE AUTHORITYNONE
V4 BID KNOWLEDGENONE
T−2 UNDERDOG RETIRED FROM THE ACTIVE DISPLAY · HISTORICAL ROWS PRESERVED
Selective now occupies this research slot and records its own bids separately.
60m
TIME—O—H—L—C—VOL—TARGET—BRTI—T−—
V2 Decision Gate & Signal State
CALCULATINGWATCHINGSelected side —
V2 PROBABILITY—
BREAK-EVEN P—
EV AFTER FEES—
MODELED DEBIT—
WHY V2 CHOSE OR REJECTED THIS BID
Waiting for a decision-time snapshot…
Kalshi Real Order Book
AWAITING PROOFYES BEST BID / ASK—Exchange tradeability
NO BEST BID / ASK—Exchange tradeability
SPREAD—
VISIBLE DEPTH AT ASK—
PRICE SOURCEKALSHI
AUTHORITYNONE
Today (ET)
FEE-INCLUSIVE NETLast 30 Days
V2 ONLYV2 paper history by date
EASTERN TIMECurrent Eastern Time week: Sunday through Saturday.
SELECTED WEEK · V2 PAPER
Experiments · Selected Period
FOLLOWS V2 CALENDARExperiment · Last 30 Days
FORWARD SIGNALS ONLYV2 Divergence & RSI/ADX Experiment History
0 SIGNALSSEPARATE FORWARD PAPER RESEARCH · DOES NOT CHANGE THE FROZEN V2 MODEL · NO ORDER AUTHORITY
| Time (ET) | Market | Experiment | Signal | Ask | T− | Result | Paper P/L | V4 comparison | All channels | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting for the first forward experiment signal. | ||||||||||
V2 Modeled Paper Bids
0 ROWSMODELED PAPER — NOT AN EXCHANGE FILL · $1 fee-inclusive at the verified same-side Kalshi ask · V2 totals remain separate from V4
| Time (ET) | Ticker | Side | p | Ask | Debit | EV | Regime | Result | V4 comparison | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No V2 paper bids yet. Zero bids is acceptable. | ||||||||||
Advanced AuditDecision filters, recent no-bids, and channel comparison CURRENT DETAILS
Decision audit
EVERY FILTER| Gate | Passed | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open Advanced Audit to load details. | |||
Recent no-bid / conflict log
0 RECENT| Time (ET) | Ticker | State | V2 side | Reason | T− | Ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open Advanced Audit to load recent records. | ||||||
Members Performance — actual Kalshi Live results by account
CHECKING
Only orders carrying a real Kalshi exchange order ID appear here. Actual fills, fees and official settlement P/L stay isolated per account. Paper calls, local blocks and unacknowledged attempts are excluded.
Selected Eastern Time week: Sunday through Saturday.
Selected Member
KALSHI ONLYMember Kalshi Bid Record
0 ROWSClick any row for the complete V4 event, requested amount, actual fill, Kalshi order ID, fees and official outcome for that account.
| Time (ET) | Member | Market | Side | Requested / fill | Budget / debit | Contracts | Status | Outcome | Fees | Net P/L | Kalshi proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Select a member to load exchange-proven results. | |||||||||||
V4 Audit Log — decisions, Kalshi orders, members and system events
LOADING
This page is read-only. A V4 decision is not presented as a real order. A Live order appears only when Kalshi returned a non-empty exchange order ID. Member changes and recorded system warnings remain separate and clearly labeled.
V4 CANDIDATES · CURRENT LIVE SESSION0
KALSHI-ACKNOWLEDGED LIVE ORDERS LOADED0
MEMBER / ACCOUNT CHANGES LOADED0
RECORDED SYSTEM EVENTS LOADED0
Chronological Evidence
0 EVENTS| Time (ET) | Category | Status / action | Market / member / subsystem | Details | Proof |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading recorded audit evidence… | |||||
System Health Command Center
——
Loading Direct routing…
Issue / Event Log
active problems stay visible
| Time (ET) | Subsystem | Severity | Category | Detail | Paper | Demo | Recorder | Blocked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No events. | ||||||||
Every-Market Demo Test — Retired
Forced bidding is disabled. No qualified bid means NO BID.Experiment control — DEMO-only; no automatic expiration
🔵 DEMO ONLY
Status: OFF
—
This old forced-bid experiment is permanently OFF. Its historical Demo records remain available for audit, but it cannot be enabled from this dashboard and cannot create a new order.
Scoreboard
—Loading…
Per-market history
click a market for per-attempt execution detail—
WOULD I TRUST THIS SYSTEM WITH REAL MONEY?
—Loading validation analytics…
Overall Performance
Execution Quality
Rolling Equity Curve
AI Analysis
Breakdowns
every category: trades · wins · losses · win% · ROI · netCRO Opportunity Analysis
research-only · does not change the CROValidation Trades — click any trade for the full audit trail
| Time | Ticker | Side | Requested | Filled | Fill% | Outcome | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||||||
CRO Intelligence Expansion
SHADOW⚠ SHADOW / RESEARCH ONLY — these signals never place, size, or influence any live or Demo trade. Authority is earned only through settled out-of-sample evidence.
Loading intelligence…
Live Market Signals (real BTC perpetual flow)
Probabilities — new vs incumbent CRO
Feed Health — stale/disconnected feeds carry ZERO authority
| Feed | Connected | Age | State | Authority | Reconnects | Dropped |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||||
Historical Shadow Analytics (out-of-sample)
What the CRO Learned
—
| Feature | Permutation importance | Correlation |
|---|---|---|
| — | ||
| Condition | Verdict | Win rate | Lift | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | ||||
Council Memory
read-only · learns from every settled market · no trading authorityEvery settled market becomes a durable, compact lesson in the unified memory store on E:. Records are immutable; later validation is appended, never overwritten. Changes no Council weights, CRO authority, Live settings, sizing, or thresholds.
Memory Health
—Settled-market history
| Ticker | Result | CRO | Net P/L | Most useful | Lesson | Valid? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||||
Selected market
Select a settled market from the history list.
Owner-Controlled Maximum Live Bids Per Market
LIVE OFFThe authoritative per-market live bid-count ceiling, separate from the CRO profile. The owner-selected value is the effective cap — the CRO profile controls confidence/selectivity/pacing/re-entry but does not cap the bid count. Unlimited = no bid-count ceiling from this setting (not capped by the profile). It is only a ceiling and never forces a trade. Resets for every new market ticker. All monetary, exposure, loss, freshness, pacing, anti-churn, Risk-Governor and emergency-stop controls remain fully enforced even when Unlimited.
Exchange-Proven Live Bid Ledger
CHECKINGREAL KALSHI ONLY: every row requires a Kalshi exchange order ID. No ID means it cannot appear here as a bid, even if a model intended to trade.
| ET time | Ticker | Side | Submitted | Filled | Status | Net P/L | Kalshi order ID |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Checking the exchange-proven Live ledger… | |||||||
Pre-Bid Candidate Funnel — NOT BIDS
—These are ideas evaluated before submission. They explain why Live did or did not act, but they are never counted or displayed as Live bids unless a separate exchange-proven row exists above.
Recent Pre-Bid Candidates — NOT BIDS
durable: —| ET time | Ticker | Side | Conf | Edge (net) | Intended px | Prior bids | Evaluation state | Reason / retry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No pre-bid candidates yet — real-money Live is OFF. When armed, evaluated ideas appear here, not as bids. | ||||||||
Performance Governor
—Advisory only — protects the real-time trading lane by shedding background work under load or in the final seconds. It cannot enable/arm Live, authorize a trade, or change any threshold, sizing, capital, profile, bid-limit or monetary setting.
Critical-Path Latency
monotonic · fed from cached metricsInternal / network / model / DB / dashboard latency kept separate — never collapsed into one number. Values are milliseconds. "Never zero latency": residual exchange/network delay is shown as its own category.
| Stage | Category | Last | Median | P95 | P99 | Max | Samples | Missed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No samples yet — populates once the real-time loop records timings. | ||||||||
Background Workers (bounded queues)
—| Worker | Depth | Capacity | % full | Written | Dropped | Errors | Last write age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No background writers registered yet. | |||||||
CRO Goals & Performance
A business that never closes · continuous rolling performance, not midnight resets · the CRO competes against its own previous self · read-onlyImprovement Rate — am I becoming a better CRO?
—The CRO competes against its own previous 24h / 7d / 30d — not a calendar. Only windows with enough prior evidence are judged.
Rolling Performance vs Previous Self
current (Δ vs prior window)| Metric | Rolling 24h | Rolling 7d | Rolling 30d | Lifetime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||
Continuous Self-Review
automatic · every windowFixed Executive Goals — Minimum $125 · Stretch $175 · Elite $225
—Permanent executive performance standards on rolling 24h profit. The minimum is required — not optional. Missing it is never excused by low opportunity; it triggers a mandatory evidence-based self-review. These are accountability metrics, never permission to force trades or lower standards.
Metric Separation — realized vs EV vs account (never conflated)
Kalshi Reconciliation (authoritative)
live from KalshiPromotion Gate
statistically derived · candidate must EXCEED, not tieFoundation for automatic Demo promotion: Shadow → forward settled Demo → this gate → owner approval. No target overrides risk/safety.
| Hard requirement | Threshold |
|---|---|
| Loading… | |
Philosophy: a market that never sleeps has no midnight goal reset — every minute is a chance to be a better Chief Revenue Officer than the minute before. Anti-goal-chasing: never force trades, never lower standards, never up-size to recover, never treat past loss as debt. Missed goals trigger review & learning (stored in the Experience Engine). Read-only; Live OFF; authoritative CRO unchanged.
Demo ↔ Live Parity
One CRO brain · one execution planner · one learning architecture · only real-money safety & account state differ · read-only · Live OFFParity Status
—Subsystem Parity
shared code = one path for both realms| Subsystem | Shared? | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||
Configuration Differences
classified · accidental drift = 0| Setting | Demo | Live | Class |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||
Unified CRO Decision Intelligence
Live executive reasoning & accountability center · every market gets one authoritative BID/PASS · read-onlyDecision Accountability — 100% market coverage, not 100% trading
—Live — Current Market
—Loading…
Decision Accuracy — rolling
every BID, judged by settlementDecision Summary
—Execution Summary
capture, ignore predictionRevenue Summary
pipeline attribution · total addressable & capture efficiencyDecisions graded by actual YES/NO settlement vs the CRO's intended side; execution measured separately; only executable opportunities count toward estimated revenue (no rejected order assumed to fill). Updates continuously (~30s). Read-only; Live OFF; authoritative CRO unchanged; settlement automatically feeds the CRO's experience memory.
CRO Experience & Memory
Settlement is the teacher · market → case study → emerging pattern → established principle · read-only, zero authorityMemory Health
—Isolated learning store on the external history drive. Records, grades, generalises, challenges and proposes — it can never change authoritative CRO behaviour.
Principle Lifecycle
evidence-graded · invalidated beliefs preservedA single market never becomes a principle. Statuses progress with independent-sample size, Wilson CI and out-of-sample support; weakened beliefs are marked (not deleted).
| Pattern | Status | n | Good-dec | Wilson CI | OOS | Regimes | Contra | Recency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||||||
Executive Principles
high-confidence / established only| Status | n | Conf | Principle |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||
Contradictions & Challenged Beliefs
evolve, never silently overwrite| Principle | Conflict | Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||
Adviser Reliability by Regime
research only · never changes authority| Provider | Segment | Dir acc | Brier | Rev effect | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||||
Liquidity & Execution Memory
—Permanent market-microstructure knowledge: how much of the displayed book actually fills (phantom liquidity), by regime and book profile. Evidence-graded — knowledge only, never decides.
| Liquidity pattern | Status | n | Realized fill | Phantom | Spread | Depth$ | Regimes | CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||||||
Recent Lessons
decision graded separately from outcome| Market | Setup | Action | Outcome | Dec | Exec | Captured | Lesson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||||||
Playbook
—| Category | Market | Permanent lesson |
|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||
Proposed Shadow Experiments
owner-gated · not applied—
Revenue Capture Pipeline
Settled Demo evidence · opportunities moved through every stage until revenue is captured · read-onlyNorth-Star
—The single number the CRO's job maximizes: of every truly-profitable opportunity that actually existed, how much settled revenue was captured versus leaked.
The Capture Funnel
nested on truly-available opportunitiesHow many opportunities survived each stage to become captured revenue. The cliff between qualified and acted on is where most recoverable revenue sits.
Loading…
Where Revenue Leaked — by Cause
expected value, not hindsight winners| Cause | Leaked $ | Markets | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||
Conversion Cliff — Qualified → Executable
—The largest cliff in the pipeline. Every probability-qualified opportunity reconciled to one authoritative reason it did or did not become executable — the full distribution, not an aggregate.
Loading…
Per-opportunity reconciliation
—| Ticker | Authoritative reason | Opp value | Became executable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||